A craft brewery · Inland Empire, Southern California · kegs and a taproom
The hop surplus is clearing.
What the agent sees. US hop stocks were 105 million pounds on
September 1, down 9.5% from 116 million a year earlier. This year's crop is
flat, up 0.3%. The price farmers received rose 5.1% to $5.38 a pound. The surplus
that kept prices soft is being drawn down.
The situation. The brewery names Citra and Amarillo among its hops,
and next year's contracts are coming up.
The move. Contract 2027 hops now, at today's prices, before the
drawdown reaches the price.
A brewer sees last year's price. Stocks against production show where it's heading.
Stocks are reported for all US hops, not by variety.
A landscaping company · Colorado Springs, Colorado
Keep the crew leads through winter.
What the agent sees. A freeze watch at the company's site on
October 15 and 16, the usual end of the season. Landscaping employment typically
runs 1.10 times its yearly average in July and 0.84 times in February. Average pay
across all private jobs in the Colorado Springs metro is
$40.90 an hour, up 8.2% in a year, against a typical gain of about 5%.
Nationally, landscaping pay is up 4.7%.
The situation. The owner is about to lay off for winter, as every
year.
The move. Keep the two or three best crew leads through winter, or
lock in their spring return now. The jobs your crew can walk to are paying 8% more
than last year.
The owner knows the season ends. What they don't see is the local job market bidding
for their people over the winter.
An independent bike shop · Colorado Springs, Colorado
Duty relief that never reached the dealer.
What the agent sees. Nearly all bicycles sold in the US are
imported. Taiwan builds most of the mid- and high-end bikes and components an
independent shop carries, and the effective duty on bicycles from Taiwan is now
10.2%, 14 to 25 points lower than a year ago; the last change was July
2026. Duties from China, Cambodia and Vietnam, where most mass-market bikes are
made, rose that same month. The factory price of bicycles is still up 1.5%, and the
margin index for sporting-goods retailers is down 2.2%. The relief on the higher-end
bikes is being kept upstream.
The situation. The shop is placing preseason orders for its
Taiwan-built lines.
The move. Bring the Taiwan duty drop into the preseason order, and
use it to ask for better pricing or terms.
A dealer sees the supplier's price sheet, not the duty stack behind it.